Statistical Chances Of Buying A Winner At The BSA National Yearling Sale

Published by Jaime McQueen Nel on

Statistical Chances Of Buying A Winner At The BSA National Yearling Sale

The list of champions bought from the BSA National Yearling Sale over the years reads like a Who’s Who of the sport. And this year will be no different, with South Africa’s oldest premier sale taking place at the TBA Complex in Germiston on 28th and 29th April.

Some 451 yearlings have been catalogued for the upcoming Sale – and there’s always value to be gained from purchasing. Last year the median average was R200 000, with the highest price fetched being R2.8-million, while in 2020 the median average was R160 000 with a highest buy of R7.8-million.

That doesn’t mean that a potential bidder or buyer has to empty out their pockets to pick up a champion. In fact, the Sale is littered with examples of yearlings who didn’t break the bank and then went on to perform heroics on the racetrack.

Dual Met winner and Equus Horse of the Year Rainbow Bridge is a prime example. He was a R300 000 purchase from the 2016 BSA National Yearling Sales and went on to win more than R7.2-million in stake earnings alone on the track.

Current boom horse, Jet Dark, winner of back-to-back Queen’s Plates and runner-up in this year’s Cape Town Met, has already picked up R2.5-million in stakes, having been bought for R200 000 at the same Sale in 2019.

Others who have gone on to fame and fortune include Legal Eagle, Do It Again, Captain’s Ransom and Malmoos, who fetched R4.4m at the 2019 Sale and now stands as a stallion at Ridgemont Highlands after a glittering turf career.

Kuda has been supporting the National Yearling Sale since 2009. Subsequent champions from that year’s vintage include Grade One winners Ebony Flyer, bought for R700 000 and Run For It (R230 000) and Shea Shea, a R550 000 purchase buy who had a distinguished career in South Africa and abroad, earning the equivalent of over R15-million in stakes for his owners. 

Chief executive officer at Kuda, Wehann Smith, himself a successful racehorse owner and keen student of the sport, did a statistical deep dive into the success rate of yearlings from the BSA National Sale as they left the auction ring and went on to their racing careers. “The numbers were truly revealing,” he says. “It shows that the odds of buying a yearling that goes on to become a success on the racetrack are weighted in the favour of the buyer. It’s good news!”

As to back up his comment, a drill down into data analyst’s findings also tells a positive story.

For instance, the study found that the odds of a buyer finding success at the sale are as follows:

Buying a winner at this Sale – 5/10

Buying a 2-time winner – 16/10

Buying a 3-time winner – 28/10

Buying a 4-time winner – 9/2

Buying a 5-time winner – 8/1

Buying a 6-time winner – 16/1

Buying a 7-time winner – 33/1

Buying a 8-time winner – 75/1

Buying a Feature placed horse – 8/1

Buying a Multiple feature placed horse – 18/1

Buying a Feature winner – 16/1

Buying a multiple Feature winner – 45/1

Buying a Gr1 winner – 100/1

Buying a Multiple Gr1 winner – 200/1

All of which highlights the fact that the chances of you buying a winner from these prestigious Sales are more favourable than one might expect.

And with Kuda at the upcoming Sale and offering you their own packages, it makes for an unbeatable return. 90-day insurance is compulsory when buying from the Sale and Kuda offers best rates for premium cover, life saving surgery and critical care cover and after auction keep cover.

Everything points to your racing dreams coming true at the upcoming BSA National Yearling Sale.

Categories: Bloodstock

Our website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website.